UK forecast for the next 5 days
Breezy with sunshine and showers, heaviest in north and west.
Today:
Early rain clearing from eastern England, but then moving north towards the Northern Isles later. Elsewhere, breezy with sunny spells and scattered showers, these locally heavy with hail and thunder, but many south-eastern parts of England mostly dry later.
Tonight:
Showers continuing in the west, with some longer spells of rain in the north. Turning chilly inland, perhaps with a rural ground frost in central and eastern areas.
Tuesday:
Another day of sunshine and showers, again heavy with a risk of hail and thunder, although cloudier and windier for a time in the south-west with longer outbreaks of rain.
Wednesday to Friday:
Unsettled with a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Showers heavy at times with a risk of thunder. Heavy rain possible in the southwest overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
Updated at: 0203 on Mon 10 May 2021
Generalize
At first it was restless and cold. It will get warmer later.In the stormy weather in early May, low pressure will linger nearby throughout the middle of the month, keeping it cool and rainy.
The high pressure will eventually push away the low pressure in late May and bring drier weather for a period of time.
However, wetter conditions are expected at the end of May and early June.
This humid weather should also be accompanied by warmer air, so we may eventually see the end of the unusually cold spring.
Saturday, May 8-Sunday, May 16
The weekend was stormy, followed by a cool, rainy week.The low pressure system blows from the west and brings a stormy weekend to the UK, bringing heavy rain and some strong winds.
The warm front also brought very warm air to the southern and eastern regions, but only on Sundays.
By Monday, as the cold front moves eastward, the low pressure will drift overhead, bringing colder Atlantic air back to Britain.
This low point will continue to linger for the rest of the week.
This will make the weather cloudy and rainy, feeling lower than average, but not as cold as the past week.
Monday, May 17-Sunday, May 23
Keep it cool, but let it dry later.
Entering the end of May, we expect that low-pressure spending will gradually be pushed to the north and northeast for a period of time.
High-pressure buildings entering from the southwest will dry out east and west, but will also promote more northerly winds.
These winds will keep the temperature below average, so our unusually cold spring is not completely over.
The change in this pattern should be gradual, so because there is still low pressure nearby, the beginning of the week may still be somewhat unstable, and there may be some sporadic afternoon showers. However, as the high pressure accumulates, the cool air will continue, and it is expected that it will tend to be dry on weekends.
Our confidence in the large-scale model is moderate, but confidence in the exact temperature is low, and it is still a bit tricky to determine the exact temperature.
We do believe that below average is more likely than above average, but we are not sure how much below average.
If the low pressure drifts east earlier and stays nearby for too long, it may be colder than expected by the end of the week.
In addition, there may be high pressures in northern Europe, perhaps 30%, and low pressures in the south.
This will bring warmer and wetter weather to the southerly regions.
In both cases, Scotland and Northern Ireland may be colder than normal, so their confidence is higher.
Monday, May 24-Sunday, June 6
It's not stable since summer, but it's also warmer.
In the last week of May, we will rely more on our historical analogs for guidance.
These are predictions based on statistical analysis of previous years, which found similar large-scale weather patterns.
In recent weeks, these have proven to be useful due to the very poor performance of computer models.
The year we saw a similar situation was 2012, and the result was a cool and cool summer!
We still expect that there will be a high pressure in late May, shifting north and east from the United Kingdom, so that the low pressure will develop to the south of us.
These low points often bring some humid conditions to the southern region, and may also bring warmth.
Southerly winds can transport hotter air from Spain or Africa to the UK, but this will only happen if the low pressure is further west.
Similarly, our confidence in the large-scale model is moderate, but our confidence in temperature is low.
In early June and the first week of summer weather, there were some encouraging signs from historical analogues that a westerly pattern would be formed.
This will cause lows to come in from the west, bringing unstable weather, but also warmer air from the subtropical Atlantic.
The high pressure in the east and northeast means that the frontier will be stagnant nearby, so strong winds and stormy weather are unlikely.
The risk during this period is that the high pressure will remain nearby or above. This is a drier mode, but also a colder mode, because high temperatures will promote north or northwest winds and continue to transport polar air to the UK.
Go further
We will take a look at the end of spring and early summer to understand how wet or warm things might become after the dry and cold spring.
How to solve the problem that clothes cannot be dried in the coming cold and humid weather？